Unlike many investors, I don’t buy or trade individual stocks. I explain in detail why I’ve bypassed this new trend in a previous blog, but the main reason I don’t buy or trade individual stocks is because the price of stocks changes too quickly. It’s hard to predict if a stock will go up or down. Since stock prices are so volatile (and change so often) there is an increased risk that I might lose money. My goal is to invest in a way that increases the chance I’ll make a profit but has a low risk that I may lose money. The main way I maximize profit and minimize risk is by investing in index funds.
Index funds are groups of many different stocks that follow a certain index. For example, one index fund may follow the S & P 500 index and purchase hundreds of stocks from American companies. Another index fund may be filled with thousands of stocks from all around the world. There are many different choices. When you purchase an index fund you are buying a fund that has purchased a percentage of all the stocks in that index. By purchasing a percentage of hundreds or thousands of stocks, you have better diversification in your investment portfolio with much lower risk of losing money.
There are many different choices of index funds to choose from. I have accounts at Vanguard and Fidelity (which are two of many different types of brokerage firms). Through these companies I have chosen 5 main index funds:
1. Total Stock Market Index Fund I invest in this fund at Vanguard through my employer-sponsored retirement account at work (called a 403b which is very similar to a 401K). I also invest in this fund through my Roth IRA at Fidelity. This index fund has a portion of over 3,600 stocks from small, medium, and large sized American companies. With this fund, I own a portion of all the stocks in the United States. The greatest percentage of money in this fund is invested in Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Tesla. It also has much smaller percentages of thousands of other companies. Altogether, this fund has made over 20% in profit over the last year and 15% in profit over the last 5 years.
2. Total International Stock Market Index I also invest in this fund at Vanguard through my 403b and through my Roth IRA at Fidelity. Unlike the previous index fund, this particular fund has over 7,000 stocks from all over the world. 38% of these stocks are from European countries. 24% of these stocks are from emerging markets in developing countries. 26% are from countries in the pacific and about 6% are from countries in North America. This fund has made over 11% in profit over the last 5 years.
3. Total Bond Market Index Fund I invest in this fund at Vanguard through my work 403b. This fund buys almost all of the bonds in the United States. Since these are bonds, there is much less risk that I will lose money but because of this extra caution, the returns aren’t as great. This fund has over 10,000 bonds with 63% of them being US Government bonds. It has made a return of about 5% over the last 5 years.
4. Total International Bond Market Index Fund I invest in this fund at Vanguard through my work 403b. This fund buys bonds from all around the world. This fund has over 6,000 bonds with over 57% of them from Europe. It has made a return of about 4% annually over the last 5 years.
5. Real Estate Index Fund I invest in this fund through my Roth IRA at Fidelity. This fund is filled with lots of smaller real estate funds that are full of many smaller real estate deals. I chose to invest in this fund in an effort to add some real estate investments to my portfolio. Over the last 5 years, this fund has had an average annual profit of 5%..
Overall, about 20% of my money is in real estate index funds, 5% in bond index funds, and 75% is in stock index funds. What is the makeup of your investment portfolio? Are you using index funds?
5 Lessons GameStop Taught Us About Investing
Over the last few weeks there has been a great deal of buzz about GameStop. In case you missed it, GameStop is a retail company that sells video games and associated equipment in shopping centers across the country. Due to the recent pandemic, many Wall Street Investors noticed that people are shopping in person less and thus predicted that the GameStop and its stock would go down in price. Some of those investors even made bets that this would happen (by “shorting" the stock).
Many individual investors on an internet forum disagreed with this prediction. In an act of defiance, they decided to buy large shares of GameStop stock and encouraged everyone on the forum to do the same thing. As more and more people bought the stock, the price of the stock increased drastically. The stock price increased from around $20 at the start of the year to over $400 at one point proving the Wall Street investors wrong and causing some of the largest investment firms to lose millions of dollars in the process. Conversely, many of these individual investors who were on the internet forum made thousands of dollars. Many people realized how much money they had made and began to sell the stock to realize their profits. As more people sold their stock, the price of the stock began to decrease. As I’m writing this article, the stock is around $60.
Here are 5 lessons we can learn from GameStop:
1. Sometimes buying individual stocks can make you a lot of money. The GameStop stock price increased from $20 to over $400 at some point. People who purchased shares of the stock around that lower number and sold it around the higher number made a substantial profit. There have been reports of people making thousands of dollars and beyond.
2. If you purchase a stock when it is already near its peak you can lose a lot of money. While many people on the internet forum who bought the stock when it was around $20 made a huge profit, many people who purchased the stock when it was near $300 or $400 were not as fortunate. Because the stock went down in price and is now around $60, anyone who bought the stock higher than this price lost a substantial amount of money.
3. Making money buying individual stocks relies on good timing and good luck. Some people made a lot of money by purchasing the stock and some people lost a lot of money by purchasing the stock. Which group you may fall into if you choose to buy individual stocks depends on many factors, but two of the biggest factors “good timing” and “good luck.” None of us can predict the future, so despite how good we think our guesses may be, making money by purchasing individual stocks has a great deal of risk. Who could have predicted that people on an internet forum would buy stock in a struggling company and cause the price to increase over 600%? Who could have predicted that the price would decrease to $60 less than 2 weeks later? A lot of the profit people make buying individual stocks requires them to buy the stock and sell the stock and just the right point and timing these two things can be challenging to say the least.
4. The prices of stocks can change drastically. In this situation, the price of GameStop stock ranged from $20 to well over $400 and the change happened in the span of weeks. Although changes to stock prices don’t usually have this wide of a range, this situation was a good illustration of a key investment principle: prices of stocks can change and some stocks are more volatile, and likely to have these types of changes more frequently than others. This can be great news for investors who are able to “time the market” and happen to buy the stock at its low point, but this can be hard to do. Stock prices change for myriad of reasons that you can’t always predict.
5. Stock prices aren’t always based on the company’s financials and overall value. GameStop prices changed a lot over the past few weeks, but this change wasn’t based on something that the company itself did. In fact, nothing about the actual business of GameStop or its financial outlook changed. Yet, despite this, the stock price fluctuated a lot. Although this worked out well for investors in GameStop who made profits, the fact that stock prices can change may not be so good for other companies who are more successful. In fact, it isn’t uncommon for successful companies to experience a drop in their stock price despite increasing their revenue and doing good from a “business sense.” Since a company’s stock price isn’t always based on the company’s financials, this makes it more difficult to predict which stocks will earn you a profit and which will not.
My point? Buying individual stocks is risky. You have the potential to make a lot of money, but you also have the potential to lose a lot of money. What actually happens for you depends a lot on luck. To avoid having to rely on good luck, I invest in index funds. This means I own a little piece of all the stocks. This strategy gives me steady profits and also minimizes risk.
4 Reasons I Don’t Buy or Trade Individual Stocks
Over the last few months, many of my friends have started investing. Because they know I love talking about personal finance, they will often ask me advice on which stocks to purchase. I tell them all the same thing: “I don’t buy individual stocks, I only buy index funds.” They usually seem a bit perplexed and want to know why. Here’s my answer:
1. It takes a lot of work and timely information is difficult to find. As a busy doctor, I don’t have a lot of free time. Some weeks I work 80 hours in the hospital or have over 20 patient message to review. I barely have time to fold my laundry on a regular basis let alone do extra work, outside of work. When I do get a free afternoon or “golden” weekend in which I’m not on call at the hospital, the last thing I want to do is be productive. Most of the time, I just want to relax with friends and family eating good food or enjoying quality time. Trading stocks or researching companies to invest in, isn’t on my priority list.
Even if I did have the desire to learn more about various companies, finding good, timely, information can be quite challenging. Most of the time when information about a company is finally published it has already been known to Wall Street investors beforehand. This means it’s almost too late to make an investment decision that could make you money. For example, if I turned on the news and heard that Facebook was acquiring another company that could increase its profits, chances are the price of Facebook stock would have already increased to reflect this change. By the time lay people like you or I tried to capitalize on this potential increase in stock value it would be too late.
2. It requires substantial research on each industry and company. Although apps like Robinhood and Akorns have made purchasing individual stocks easier, they haven’t necessarily made it more profitable for the consumer. In order to actually make money when you purchase stocks you need to purchase companies that will increase in value and do so in a way that you will still make money even after you pay the taxes on your profits. This may sound easy to do initially. You may be thinking that you’d just purchase stock of Netflix and Facebook or Tesla and Apple then call it day. Unfortunately, it’s not that simple. If it were, everyone would do that.
There are some companies that seem to grow exponentially in ways we could never expect and other companies that seem to implode overnight. It’s difficult to predict which ones will make money over time and which ones will not. In fact, Wall Street companies spend millions, if not billions, of dollars each year on market research to help provide more information to help them make better predictions and investment choices. Even they still struggle to choose the right companies year after year.
3. The market is volatile and things change quickly. If 2020 taught us anything, it’s that life can be unpredictable. Random unforeseen events that happen in other parts of the world can affect us in ways we could never have imagined. These effects not only impact our daily lives, but they can have drastic effects on our economy and the success or failure of certain businesses.
Before the coronavirus, many of us would have assumed that airlines and travel industries would do remarkably well in the summer. The weather is great, kids are out of school, and most people have time off of work to go on vacation. We all got a rude awakening in March when the coronavirus pandemic put a drastic halt to almost all leisure travel and many airline industries found themselves on the brink of bankruptcy. Past performance isn’t always indicative of the future valuations and this makes picking and choosing individual stocks to purchase quite risky. Which leads me to my last point…
4. It adds too much risk and I don’t like losing money. When you buy individual stocks you’re essentially rolling the dice and hoping that the company’s stock you purchased will increase in value over time. As we mentioned before, stock prices are volatile. A company’s stock could be worth $20 today but then drop to $5 tomorrow due to some global tragedy or company scandal that you had no idea about. They best way to mitigate risk and decrease your chances at losing money (and increase your chance of making money), is to diversify your investments.
This means purchasing stocks in a variety of different companies from a slew of different industries. Since it would be too cumbersome to individually purchase all the stocks, most people such as myself, just buy index mutual funds. An index fund does the work of buying all the stocks for you. That way, your investments are diversified in a seamless, stress-free, risk-averse manner.